{"id":770,"date":"2024-03-13T19:45:44","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T19:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/?p=770"},"modified":"2024-03-13T19:54:51","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T19:54:51","slug":"hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Hope is NOT a Marketing Strategy!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_58 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\" role=\"button\"><label for=\"item-6a09da9cd1cc6\" ><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input aria-label=\"Toggle\" aria-label=\"item-6a09da9cd1cc6\"  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-6a09da9cd1cc6\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Do_you_know_when_to_sell_your_grain\" title=\"Do you know when to sell your grain?\">Do you know when to sell your grain?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Marketing_grain_is_all_about_managing_risk\" title=\"Marketing grain is all about managing risk.\">Marketing grain is all about managing risk.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Be_Proactive_NOT_Reactive\" title=\"Be Proactive, NOT Reactive!\">Be Proactive, NOT Reactive!<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Chart_Patterns_Predict_Future_Price_Direction\" title=\"Chart Patterns Predict Future Price Direction!\">Chart Patterns Predict Future Price Direction!<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Marketing_Canola_When_the_Trend_is_Down\" title=\"Marketing Canola When the Trend is Down\">Marketing Canola When the Trend is Down<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/hope-is-not-a-marketing-strategy\/#Advantages_of_making_a_sale_when_the_market_is_at_risk_of_turning_down\" title=\"Advantages of making a sale when the market is at risk of turning down:\">Advantages of making a sale when the market is at risk of turning down:<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Do_you_know_when_to_sell_your_grain\"><\/span><strong>Do you know when to sell your grain?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Talking to hundreds of farmers at the 2024 Crop Production show in Saskatoon and Manitoba Ag Days in Brandon, we were surprised to hear how many farmers were either undersold or still holding 100% of their canola. We knew the trend had turned down in August 2023, but they didn\u2019t, or they didn\u2019t want to believe it. The news at the time was bullish with ideas this year\u2019s yields were going to be disappointing. However, the news is always bullish at the top, so we rely on charting and technical analysis to cut through the news (noise).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The canola market has gone down $200-220\/tonne ($4.50-5.00\/bu) since August 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A lot of farmers are hoping prices will improve. There\u2019s a herd mentality in believing no one could have foreseen this downturn. However, to an experienced grain marketing analyst, it was clear the market was going to turn down.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Marketing_grain_is_all_about_managing_risk\"><\/span><b>Marketing grain is all about managing risk.<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Making an incremental sale before an inevitable downturn has many advantages, which I\u2019ve listed at the end of this article. I believe in educating farmers on ways to market grain, so I\u2019d like to reference the March 2024 futures chart to illustrate the ebb and flow of the canola market. Reading a chart is like reading a roadmap. It shows where you came from, where you are, and where you are going.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-782\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.10\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2526\" height=\"1418\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Be_Proactive_NOT_Reactive\"><\/span><b>Be Proactive, NOT Reactive!<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This journey began one year ago on January 4, 2023. Referenced as (A) in the accompanying chart, the canola market had rallied into resistance and was at risk of turning down, so we advised our clients to start selling their 2023-24 canola production. Prices were $18.00-18.50 for October 2023 delivery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-781\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.21\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2524\" height=\"1422\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In less than three months, the market lost $3.00 per bushel. At the bottom (B), on March 22, 2023, our phones were ringing off the wall. Farmers who were not yet subscribed to AgChieve were frantically calling and asking if they should sell. We said not to sell because a <\/span><b><i>reversal pattern<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> had appeared on the futures chart signalling the market was about to turn back up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-780\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.29\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2526\" height=\"1418\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market went up, and on May 12, 2023 (C), we made a recommendation to make an incremental sale.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-779\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.36\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2528\" height=\"1416\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market quickly lost $2.00 per bushel and on May 31, 2023 (D), we were once again getting calls from worried farmers asking if they should sell. We said we were not selling and advised them not to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-778\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.45\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2528\" height=\"1420\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market rebounded $90.00 per tonne and on June 29, 2023 (E), we made a recommendation to make a sale. Those who we advised not to sell at the bottom (D) were grateful we helped them make $2.00 per bushel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-777\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.53\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2528\" height=\"1416\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Chart_Patterns_Predict_Future_Price_Direction\"><\/span><b>Chart Patterns Predict Future Price Direction!<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In July 2023, the market pushed through resistance at $725.00 (E) and rallied to $840.00 (F). We were at Ag in Motion at the time telling farmers that came by our booth this market was about to turn down. This was because the market had rallied into resistance and achieved the $840 objective provided by a <\/span><b><i>bull flag<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> formation that developed in June 2023. However, farmers were reluctant to sell because they were unsure of their production.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-776\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.29.59\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2524\" height=\"1418\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When futures dropped below the <\/span><b><i>uptrending line of support<\/i><\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">in August 2023, we knew the trend had changed and we had to sell the rebound. On August 24, 2023 (G), we alerted our clients to sell canola because the market was about to turn down. The market stayed up for six days, more than enough time for our clients to get their canola sold, just before prices fell $3.00 per bushel. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-775\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.30.07\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2526\" height=\"1418\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Marketing_Canola_When_the_Trend_is_Down\"><\/span><b>Marketing Canola When the Trend is Down<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Knowing how imperative it is to sell the rebounds in a <\/span><b><i>downtrending market<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, we made another recommendation to sell canola on November 7, 2023 (H), before prices fell $2.00 per bushel. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-774\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.30.16\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2526\" height=\"1416\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our discipline is to make a recommendation to sell grain when a market is at risk of turning down. Making an incremental sale when a market rallies into resistance works 85% of the time. Resistance levels on the March 2024 canola futures chart are shown here by the dashed lines at $725 and $840. The red arrows indicate the days we advised our clients to sell canola in the 2023-24 crop year. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-773\" src=\"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-13-at-12.30.24\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2524\" height=\"1416\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Advantages_of_making_a_sale_when_the_market_is_at_risk_of_turning_down\"><\/span><b>Advantages of making a sale when the market is at risk of turning down:<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1) Locks in a profitable price<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2) Reduces price risk<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3) Lessens stress<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4) Lowers the cost of storing grain<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5) Locks in prices for picking up grain bags and delivering to an elevator or crusher before spring melt. It costs time and money to put it in a bin and take it out again<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6) Delivering grain decreases the risk of spoilage\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7) Keeps peace amongst farm partners<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8) Less anxiety about whether the market will turn back up<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9) Not forced to sell canola for cash flow when the market is at a low<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10) Sleep better<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11) Enjoy life, and isn\u2019t that what farming is all about\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We have clients who\u2019ve sold most of their grain at harvest in each of the past two years. They were focused on preserving their record high gross revenue. Those who focused on price were reluctant to sell because the price wasn\u2019t high enough. I encourage you to check out my blog <\/span><b><i>\u201cThink Revenue, Not Price\u201d<\/i><\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> posted on our website <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.agchieve.ca\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">www.agchieve.ca<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Do you know when to sell your grain? Talking to hundreds of farmers at the 2024 Crop Production show in Saskatoon and Manitoba Ag Days in Brandon, we were surprised to hear how many farmers were either undersold or still holding 100% of their canola. We knew the trend had turned down in August 2023, [&hellip;]\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[11,29,13,14,20,15,17,31,10,35],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financial","tag-agriculture","tag-canadian-ag","tag-cash-flow","tag-combyne","tag-crop-contract","tag-crop-marketing","tag-farming","tag-financials","tag-grain-marketing","tag-grain-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":793,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions\/793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/welcome.combyne.ag\/resource-centre\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}